Replace Brandi’s Car

Updated October 24, 2026.

Three cars are still in the running, and all three fit the garage: the Rivian R1S, the XC90 T8 (the plug-in hybrid), and the EX90 (the fully electric XC90). Your current car came back from Rusnak needing $8,912 of repairs, so the plan is to sell it as-is and buy now instead of sometime in the next year. Joe on timing: "We were already pretty seriously considering getting rid of it and could do that immediately if needed."

Brandi liked the R1S after test driving it (Joe, October 24).

Every current deal ends November 2. That matters most for the R1S, whose 1.99% financing needs the loan approved by then.

At a glance

Next steps

  1. Call Rusnak with the questions on the Your car page, decline the repairs, and pay for the diagnosis.
  2. Test drive the XC90 T8 and EX90 back to back before November 2. The R1S test drive is done, and Joe says we can meet Rivian's November 2 deadline.
  3. Get an electrician's quote for a 40-amp garage charging circuit. Projected cost: about $1,500 to $2,500, or about $500 to $1,500 after LADWP's rebate (see Home charging setup on the Compare page).

Rivian R1S

Why you'd pick it. It's the car you named interest in. It has the only real dog mode of the three, it clears the driveway without a second thought, and it plugs straight into Tesla's Superchargers on road trips. It also costs the most to own and carries the most risk.

The deal right now

What it costs

About $18,300 a year all-in, roughly $92k over five years, which is about $4,200 a year more than the T8. Depreciation is $11,700, insurance $3,400, electricity $1,500, maintenance and tires $1,400, and the charger install $300 a year spread over five years. The 1.99% financing gives it the cheapest money of the three, which keeps that gap from growing.

Garage, driveway, charging

Dog mode, road trips, CarPlay

Reliability, resale, warranty

Self-driving

Grok research, 2026-08-30, rewritten in plain language. Not Joe's words. The full research with sources is in Appendix E.

A leftover 2026 R1S and a 2027 R1S have the same self-driving hardware, so waiting a year buys nothing here.

If it's in the shop

Claude's research, October 24. Not Joe's words.

The R1S's biggest practical risk is time without the car, both for repairs and after a collision.

How to protect against it:

  1. Add rental reimbursement to the insurance policy with the highest daily and total limits offered.
  2. Ask the nearest Rivian service center about current wait times, loaner policy, and parts delays before signing.
  3. Budget for the worst case: a six-week rental runs roughly $2,500 to $3,500 if nothing covers it.
  4. Decide on RivianCare at purchase, since only the first owner can buy it.

Sources: Rivian service terms, owner thread on loaner policy, Edmunds on Rivian service times, $53,736 R1S repair, $3,540 vs $18,164, CEO on repair costs, three months to repair

What owners say

Gathered by Claude from about 350 posts in r/Rivian, r/RivianR1S, and rivianforums, October 2026. Anecdotes, not failure rates, and problem posts dominate.

Owners love it, including many who've had problems: the ride, the space for kids and gear, the cabin, the acceleration. Gen 2 (2025 on, which is what we'd buy) gets credit for a smoother ride and better range than Gen 1, and blame for more rattles and poorly fitting doors.

At the test drive

XC90 T8

Why you'd pick it. It's the modern version of the car you already have: the same size to a tenth of an inch, the seat you like in a fully updated interior, and nothing about daily life changes. It charges on the regular garage outlet, its 32 miles of electric range covers most of your 34-mile average day, and it road-trips on gas. It's the cheapest to own and the lowest risk of the three.

The deal right now

What it costs

About $14,100 a year all-in, roughly $70k over five years, the cheapest of the three. Depreciation is $8,800, insurance $2,000, fuel and electricity $2,200, and maintenance and tires $1,100, with no charger to install. That assumes plugging in every night; driven purely on gas, fuel runs about $2,700 a year.

Garage, driveway, charging

Dog mode, road trips, CarPlay

Reliability, resale, warranty

What owners say

Gathered by Claude from LeaseHackr and owner forums, October 2026 (Reddit blocked access). Mostly 2024 and early 2025 cars; no 2026 owner reports turned up. Anecdotes, skewed toward problems.

Owners like the comfort, space, and power (one called it "a living room couch on wheels"), and most people turning in a T8 lease want another one.

At the test drive

EX90

Why you'd pick it. The same size and feel as the XC90 you like, fully electric. It fits better than the spec sheet suggests (narrower than your car with mirrors out, with 2.6 inches to spare in the garage), and it charges faster on the road than the R1S. The catches are a young model with a rough first year behind it, the weakest resale, and financing that got worse in October.

The deal right now

What it costs

About $15,400 a year all-in, roughly $77k over five years, which is about $1,300 a year more than the T8. Depreciation is $10,300, insurance $2,650, electricity $1,400, maintenance and tires $750, and the charger install $300 a year. It saves about $800 a year on energy, and higher insurance eats almost all of that. Over ten years it came out about even with the T8 at August's 2.99% rate; at 4.99%, the T8 now comes out about $5k ahead.

Garage, driveway, charging

Dog mode, road trips, CarPlay

Reliability, resale, warranty

What owners say

Same sources as the T8. Almost every report is about 2025 cars; 2026 owner reports were nearly absent.

Test drivers praise the ride and the quiet cabin. The common gripe is that almost everything, even mirror and seat adjustments, runs through the center screen.

At the test drive

Compare

Side by side

R1S XC90 T8 EX90
PowertrainFull EV, 533 hp, 329 miPlug-in hybrid, 455 hp, 32 mi electricFull EV, 449 hp, ~305 mi
Price now~$88–92k, near sticker~$81k loaded, discounted~$86k loaded, at sticker
Best deal now1.99% for 60 mo$5,500 off or 2.49–2.99%$849/mo lease
GarageFits (tested Oct 23)Identical to yoursFits, 2.6 in to spare
DrivewaySolves it outrightClears comfortablyClears with margin
Dog modeYesNoTimer only
Reliability riskWorst-rated brand, happiest ownersSoftware glitches2025 charger failures; clean 2026 so far
Insurance~$3,400/yr~$2,000/yr~$2,650/yr
Home charger neededYes, $1–2kNoYes, $1–2k
CarPlayNeverWireless, standardWireless, standard
Worth in 5 years~$28k~$38k~$30k

What each costs per year

Everything in one place, at your real mileage of about 12,400 miles a year. Assumptions and sources are in Appendix B; the two that matter most are LADWP's overnight rate (about $0.26/kWh) and no solar.

Per year R1S XC90 T8 EX90
Depreciation$11,700$8,800$10,300
Insurance$3,400$2,000$2,650
Fuel + electricity$1,500$2,200$1,400
Maintenance + tires$1,400$1,100$750
Charger install (spread over 5 yrs)$3000$300
Total per year~$18,300~$14,100~$15,400
5-year total~$92k~$70k~$77k

How long we keep it

The five-year table is the worst case for the electric cars, because years one through five are when they lose value fastest. Held ten years, the way we've held your current car, the EX90's energy savings pay back most of its early depreciation. At August's 2.99% financing the two Volvos came out even over ten years; at October's 4.99%, the T8 comes out about $5k ahead. The R1S stays roughly $17k more either way.

That makes the second question after gas-or-no-gas: is this another ten-year car? If yes, financing beats leasing on every car. If there's real doubt, the T8 is clearly cheapest and the EX90 should be leased. The next section runs the three-year version.

If we keep it three years

Claude's estimate, October 24, from current deals. Not Joe's words.

Cars should get meaningfully better over the next two to three years, mostly in self-driving (GM and Ford both target "eyes-off" highway driving for 2028) and in the number of three-row electric choices. Keeping the option to switch in three years has a price: what a three-year lease costs, compared with buying the same car and selling it at year three. On two of the three cars, that price is zero or negative.

Three years, same car both ways R1S Dual Large XC90 T8 Core EX90 Twin Plus
Lease, all-in with tax~$55,900~$32,600~$42,500
Buy, then sell at year 3~$53,700~$34,200~$56,600
Cheaper pathAbout evenLease, slightlyLease, by ~$14,000
Plus insurance, energy, upkeep (3 yrs)~$20,400~$15,900~$15,900
Three years all-in, cheaper path~$74,000~$48,500~$58,000

How these were figured: purchase at today's price plus 9.25% sales tax, the offered financing rate with interest paid through month 36, and resale at year three (T8 59% of sticker from its observed history, EX90 48% from used-market projections, R1S 50%). The T8 buy uses CarsDirect's discounted price as a cash purchase. Leases use the advertised payment and amount due at signing for 36 months, plus tax. Not included: lease fees of about $1,000 to $1,500, registration, and the 12,500-mile lease tier you'd need ($15 to $25 a month more).

Financing or leasing

Current offers, all ending November 2. Run at your real mileage (12,400 miles a year).

Finance Lease Our pick
R1S1.99%/60 mo on every 2026 Dual build, from in-stock inventory$1,209/mo, $7,604 at signingFinance and keep it
XC90 T82.49% or 2.99%/72 mo, or up to $5,500 cash instead$669/mo Core, $5,799 at signing, ~$830/mo effectiveFinance, if it's a keeper
EX904.99%/72 mo + $1k cash$849/mo, $8,369 at signing, ~$1,081/mo effectiveLease unless it's a ten-year car

Sources: Rivian 1.99% offer, Rivian lease bonus, CarsDirect XC90, CarsDirect EX90, Carfax Volvo, TrueCar Volvo. Checked October 23.

Hybrid or full electric, day to day

The only daily difference is fueling. The T8 charges on the regular garage outlet because its battery is small. A full EV's battery is about ten times bigger, and that same outlet adds only 3 to 4 miles of range an hour. At 34 miles a day it would technically keep up, but recovering from a road trip or a near-empty battery would take days.

So either electric car means adding a 240-volt circuit in the garage, the same kind a dryer uses, projected below. It's a one-time house upgrade that carries over to every future electric car, so it shouldn't sway the decision.

Home charging setup

Claude's projection, October 24, from typical Los Angeles install costs and Joe's panel photos. Not quotes; an electrician's quote replaces this.

Projected for us: about $1,500 to $2,500 before LADWP's rebate, about $500 to $1,500 after. That assumes the recommended setup (a hardwired wall charger on a 40-amp circuit) and no panel upgrade, which the photos suggest we won't need.

Option What it is Projected cost After LADWP rebate
Wall charger, hardwired (recommended)A 40-amp circuit to the garage plus a wall unit. Tesla's Universal Wall Connector fits the R1S directly and includes an adapter for the Volvos.~$1,500–2,500 (charger ~$400–800, install and permit the rest)~$500–1,500
240-volt outlet plus portable chargerA dryer-style outlet in the garage and a plug-in charging cable~$500–1,200Likely doesn't qualify
If the panel can't take itA load-management device that shares capacity with other appliances, or a panel upgrade+$600–1,200, or +$2,500–5,000 and weeks to months with LADWPNot covered

What the panel photo shows (Claude's read of Joe's October 24 photos; an electrician confirms). The house has 200-amp service: the main breaker is 200 amps and the meter is rated for 200. The big existing loads are the AC (60 amps), the guest house subpanel (60 amps), and the oven (40 amps); the furnace, dryer, and cooktop circuits are small, which suggests they run on gas. That leaves room for a 40-amp charging circuit, which is plenty for a 34-mile day, so a panel upgrade looks unlikely. The catch is space: the panel looks full, with no empty slots. An electrician can usually fit a 240-volt circuit with slim breakers or by consolidating circuits, and there's a pencil note on the panel that looks like an earlier electrician's note about exactly that. Expect the low-to-middle end of the range, about $1,200 to $2,500 depending on the distance to the garage.

LADWP, not PG&E. The meter is LADWP's, which Joe confirmed on October 24, so the cost numbers now use LADWP's rates: about $0.25 to $0.27 per kWh overnight and on weekends on its time-of-use rate, versus the $0.23 PG&E figure used before. That added $100 to $200 a year to each car's energy cost and didn't change the ranking. LADWP's Charge Up LA rebate pays up to $1,000 toward a qualifying Level 2 wall charger and its installation (a plain outlet with a portable charger likely doesn't qualify), which could bring the wall-charger route down to roughly $200 to $1,500 out of pocket. A separately metered charger earns another 2.5 cents per kWh off (about $110 a year at Brandi's driving) plus a $250 meter rebate, which probably doesn't cover the cost of installing a second meter. Check LADWP's site for current terms before buying a charger. Sources: LADWP rates explained, LADWP rebate guide, LADWP on the rebate.

Road trips in a full EV

Only the R1S and EX90 need this; the T8 road-trips as a gas car. The number people quote (how long to charge to full) is the wrong one. Fast charging slows sharply above 80%, so on a trip you plug in around 10%, stop at 80%, and drive on.

R1S (Max battery) EX90 (2026)
10% to 80% on a fast charger~35 to 45 min, about 38 after Rivian's 2026.07 update~22 min at best, 25 to 30 min in practice
Miles that adds~200 to 250~150 to 200
Highway range from full (70 mph)~320 to 350 mi~310 mi on 21-inch wheels, ~210 to 250 on 22-inch
PlugTesla's plug built in, straight into SuperchargersOlder CCS plug, reaches Superchargers with an included adapter

Dog mode

Your priority. Only one of the three does what Tesla's Dog Mode does.

Have each dealer demonstrate it on the actual car. Either way, California law restricts leaving an animal in a car in conditions that endanger it, and no software mode changes that. The feature buys a 20-minute errand, not an afternoon.

The warranty plan

Both Volvos come with a short 4-year, 50,000-mile warranty, and the expensive parts that fail (rear electric motor, air suspension, onboard charger) live under that short warranty, not the longer 8-year battery warranty.

Company health

Claude's summary of October 2026 reporting, checked against Volvo's own releases. Not Joe's words.

Volvo is losing money. Its third-quarter results (October 23) showed revenue down 23%, an operating loss of about $350 million against a profit a year earlier, and about $850 million of cash burned in the quarter. It's cutting 2,500 more jobs, withdrew its full-year targets on October 2, and its stock is down about half this year. Its credit rating sits at the top of junk with a negative outlook. It still has about $5 billion of cash and credit, and Geely, which owns about 79%, is moving closer. In the US, XC90 sales grew in the third quarter while Volvo's electric car sales fell 41%.

What it means for us (Claude's read):

Rivian also loses money on every car, but had $5.3 billion of cash at mid-year, delivered its first R2s in June, and analysts put its bankruptcy odds around 5%. This month narrowed the gap between the two companies.

Sources: Volvo Q3 2026 release, Volvo guidance cut, Volvo credit ratings, Volvo Q3 sales

What's coming that we'd miss

Updated October 24.

The long-range T8 is the one thing coming that argues for waiting, or for leasing a 2026 T8 instead of buying it. The rest argues for keeping the option to switch in a few years (see If we keep it three years).

Your car

Why replace it now

Your car ran well for ten years with nothing big breaking, until the October repair quote. It's ten years old, past the point where the factory warranty can be extended, and it has the first-generation version of the rear electric motor, the least reliable version of this platform's best-known failure. A replacement motor runs over $10,000, more than the car is worth. Its real value came in on October 23: CarMax offered $6,400 with the check engine light disclosed.

The repair quote

Claude's read of Rusnak's service video and quote, October 23. Not Joe's words, and not a mechanic's.

Repair Quote Read
Supercharger resonator and reseal$3,971A real problem, and the cause of the check engine light. Ask what the price covers (below).
Timing belt and accessory belt$2,270Due by age on a ten-year-old car, and a snapped belt destroys the engine. Only worth doing if we keep the car.
Front O2 sensor$767The tech said the leak wore it out. It may recover once the leak is fixed, so hold.
Spark plugs$445Fair maintenance that adds nothing at sale.
Coolant exchange$419Same.
Brake fluid exchange$376Same.
Alignment$256The tech marked it optional.
Cabin air filter$235A cheap part you can swap at home in five minutes.
Intake air filter$173Same, even though the quote marks it "Critical."
Total$8,912

The rest of the inspection was clean: tires, brakes (7 mm front, 8 mm rear), motor mounts, and no leaks underneath. The exhaust passed its smoke test.

The leak matches a known factory issue. Volvo Technical Journal TJ 31120 (April 2016) covers this exact code (ECM-P017100) on 2016 XC90 T8s, and the fix it describes is replacing one gasket on the supercharger resonator. Rusnak's line item reads "resonator and reseal kit" at $3,971, which sounds like more than one gasket.

The scan screen in the video also showed stored codes the tech didn't mention: a high-voltage battery isolation fault, an "active discharge" fault, and an air suspension compressor failure. Stored codes are sometimes old ones that no longer matter, and the video doesn't show which these are. The high-voltage one is the safety question, so confirm it before driving the car much more.

If we kept it two more years

Claude's rough estimate, October 24, from Rusnak's quote and owner reports. Not Joe's words, and not a mechanic's.

Expect about $10,000 to $14,000 in repairs over two years, with a range of about $7,000 to $21,000 or more. The rear electric motor decides which end you land on.

Good case Likely Bad case
Fixes to keep it (check engine light, timing belt, overdue maintenance)~$3,500~$5,000~$8,900
Routine wear (brakes, tires, 12-volt battery, services)~$2,500~$3,000~$3,500
Air suspension compressor (code already stored)0~$1,500~$2,500
Rear electric motor or high-voltage repairCovered or doesn't failSome risk~$8,000+ out of warranty
Two-year total~$7,000~$10,000–14,000~$21,000+

Questions for Rusnak

  1. Can we get a printout of every stored fault code, marked active or old? (Claude read the codes from a blurry video, so the printout is the real record.)
  2. Are the high-voltage battery isolation fault and the "active discharge" fault active? Did you run an isolation test, and is the car safe to drive for the next few weeks?
  3. Is the resonator leak the issue in Volvo Technical Journal TJ 31120? That bulletin covers code P017100 on 2016 XC90 T8s and fixes it with one gasket. What does the $3,971 cover beyond that gasket, and what would the bulletin repair cost by itself?
  4. Since this is a known factory issue on a car we bought new and had serviced here, would Volvo help pay for it? (Claude's idea. At ten years old it's a long shot, but asking costs nothing.)
  5. Was the O2 sensor tested on its own, or would its codes likely clear once the leak is fixed?
  6. Is the air suspension compressor code active?
  7. Has the timing belt ever been replaced, and what is Volvo's replacement interval for our VIN?
  8. What would you give us for it as a trade-in, as-is, in writing?
  9. Is the high-voltage fault covered under the California hybrid warranty? Volvo's own support page gives the T8's hybrid battery 10 years or 150,000 miles in California emission-warranty states. Our car went into service in January 2017 at about 119,000 miles, so if that coverage applies, it may run until January 2027. (Claude's research; owner forums report the rear electric motor also replaced under this coverage, but Volvo hasn't confirmed that.)
  10. Has the rear electric motor (ERAD) ever been replaced on this car, and would a failure before January 2027 be covered?

What it's worth

Instant offers from October 23, each run two ways:

Good condition, no repairs needed Fair condition, check engine light
CarMax$7,600$6,400
Carvana$6,900$5,400

The right-hand column is the honest one, since the dings and the warning light are both real, so $6,400 from CarMax is the number to beat. The warning light (together with the fair rating) costs $1,200, which means fixing the resonator only pays before selling if it costs less than about $1,200. Rusnak's $3,971 doesn't come close; a bulletin-only gasket job might. California gives no sales-tax credit for a trade-in, so take whichever offer is highest, dealer or not.

Selling it

Get the CarMax and Carvana offers on the same day so they price the same car in the same week. Each takes about five minutes online, each is good for seven days, and neither depends on buying a car from them. A private sale would net $2k to $3k more in exchange for real hassle.

What to tell both of them. Both re-check the car at handoff and lower the offer for anything that doesn't match what you entered. A disclosed problem is priced in; one they discover costs more. Answer with:

Carvana (Carvana's own site blocked a direct check, so these steps come from recent third-party guides):

  1. Get the offer. On carvana.com, choose Sell/Trade and enter the plate or VIN.
  2. Answer the questions. Mileage, condition, accident history, warning lights, and any loan. About two minutes, and the offer appears right away.
  3. Know the clock. The offer holds for 7 days or 1,000 miles, whichever comes first.
  4. Schedule the handoff. Free pickup at the house, or drop it at a Carvana location. A rep checks the VIN, mileage, and condition, which takes about 20 minutes. If something doesn't match, they offer less on the spot, and you can refuse and keep the car.
  5. Get paid. By check at handoff or direct deposit within a few business days. With a loan, Carvana pays the lender and sends you the difference.

CarMax (from CarMax's sell-your-car pages):

  1. Get the offer. On carmax.com/sell-my-car, enter the plate, the state it's registered in (California), and your zip code.
  2. Answer the questions. Most cars get an instant offer; CarMax needs to see some in person, and a car with a warning light may land in that group.
  3. Know the clock. The offer is good for 7 days, and an expired one can be refreshed online anytime.
  4. Book the appointment. At a store, or home pickup where available. CarMax checks the car against what you entered and adjusts only if condition, use, or history differs.
  5. Get paid. At the appointment.

Dealer trade-in number. At each test drive, and from Rusnak, ask for an as-is trade-in number in writing and ask them to beat $6,400. Keep it separate from negotiating the new car's price, so a high trade number can't hide a worse deal on the new car.

What to have ready:

Timing. It's your daily car, so the handoff happens after the new one is home. The offers run on 7-day clocks, so refresh them online in the week of the handoff and take the highest.

Background

What the car has to do

The buying rules we're using

What we measured

The garage is the real constraint. Your car is 194.9 inches long with about 6 inches to spare, so anything much over 201 inches doesn't fit. That eliminated the Lexus TX and the Toyota Grand Highlander. The R1S is 200.8 inches, a tenth of an inch inside the line on paper, so it got a real-world test: a friend's R1S fit in our garage on October 23.

The driveway eliminated nothing. Joe's Macan uses the same driveway, sits lower than anything we'd buy, and only occasionally scrapes, so it's the true worst case, and every candidate clears better than the Macan does. The scraping happens at the bottom, where the ramp meets the street, so the front approach angle is what matters, not ground clearance. Full data in Appendix A.

Your current car also has an Off Road mode that raises it 1.6 inches below 25 mph, which is exactly the driveway situation and worth trying before it's gone.

What got cut

Car Why it's out
Kia EV9The value play of the group (about $60k with the strongest warranty), but Joe's call: "pretty sure my wife isn't going for a Kia." It also had the worst predicted reliability of anything we looked at.
Hyundai Ioniq 9Same brand call, and it's a first model year anyway.
Lexus TX 550h+Too long for the garage (203.1 in).
Toyota Grand Highlander HybridToo long for the garage (201.4 in).
Audi Q7 / Q9The Q7 is the last year of an old generation with no plug-in or electric option here; the Q9 is a first model year and too long.

Next steps

To do

Open questions

Research

The detail behind everything else, kept for reference.

Appendix A: dimensions and driveway data

The spec-sheet trap. Volvo publishes width with mirrors folded; Kia, Hyundai, Lexus, and Toyota publish body width without mirrors. Compared directly, that makes the Volvo look wider than it is and every rival narrower. Everything below is normalized to mirrors-folded (how it sits parked) and mirrors-out (how it fits through the door), from factory spec sheets.

The baseline: her 2016 XC90 T8 (factory spec)

Measure in mm
Length194.94950
Body width (no mirrors)75.71923
Width, mirrors folded79.12008
Width, mirrors out84.32140
Height (incl. shark fin)69.91776
Ceiling needed to open the tailgate84.52146
Wheelbase117.52984
Ground clearance (standard)9.4238
Ground clearance (air suspension range)8.9 to 10.5227 to 267

Constraint priority (set 2026-08-14): length first (about 6 in of slack, ceiling roughly 200.9 in), driveway second (later resolved: filters nobody), width third, height not a concern.

All candidates vs. the baseline (deltas vs. 2016 XC90; parked width = mirrors folded)

Car Length Parked width Mirrors out Height Tailgate open
XC90 2016 (hers)194.979.184.369.984.5
XC90 2026195.0 (+0.1)79.1 (0)84.3 (0)69.7 (-0.2)84.5 (0)
Volvo EX90198.3 (+3.4)80.3 (+1.2)83.2 (-1.1)68.8 (-1.1)85.7 (+1.2)
Kia EV9197.4 (+2.5)80.6 (+1.5)89.1 (+4.8)70.1 (+0.2)n/v
Hyundai Ioniq 9199.2 (+4.3)n/v (body 78.0)n/v70.5 (+0.6)n/v
Rivian R1S200.8 (+5.9)81.8 (+2.7)88.4 (+4.1)~73.3 std / 71.5 lown/v
Lexus TX 550h+203.1 (+8.2)n/v (body 78.3)n/v70.1 (+0.2)n/v
Toyota Grand Highlander Hyb.201.4 (+6.5)n/v (body 78.3)n/v72.1 (+2.2)n/v

Length filter (~200.9 in ceiling)

Car Length Slack left
XC90 2026195.05.9 in ✅
Kia EV9197.43.5 in ✅
Volvo EX90198.32.6 in ✅
Hyundai Ioniq 9199.21.7 in ✅
Rivian R1S200.80.1 in on paper; fit confirmed October 23 ✅
Toyota Grand Highlander Hyb.201.4over ❌
Lexus TX 550h+203.1over ❌

Driveway: how the analysis evolved

The first pass measured everything against the 2016 XC90 on approach, breakover, and departure angles plus ground clearance, and concluded every candidate was worse, with the EX90 looking disqualified at -5.0° of approach. Two corrections rebuilt it (2026-08-14):

  1. The Macan is the real floor. Joe's 2019 Macan (8.1 in clearance, 16.9° approach, steel springs) uses the same driveway and only occasionally scrapes. The XC90 is the comfortable end of the range; the Macan is the bar.
  2. The contact point is the bottom transition, where the street meets the ramp. That makes approach angle the only relevant spec; ground clearance, breakover, and wheelbase drop out.

Result, ranked on approach angle vs. the Macan floor (16.9°):

Car Approach vs. Macan
Volvo EX9018.8°+1.9 ✅
Kia EV920.0°+3.1 ✅
Hyundai Ioniq 920.1°+3.2 ✅
XC90 202621.0°+4.1 ✅
XC90 2016 (hers)23.8°+6.9 ✅
Rivian R1S35.6°+18.7 ✅

Every candidate clears better than the Macan does today, so the driveway filters nobody. Two earlier conclusions were withdrawn on 2026-08-14: "the EX90 is the casualty that matters" (it clears, with air suspension to 9.8 in in reserve) and "air suspension is a requirement" (back to a preference).

Full three-angle data from the original pass, kept for reference:

Car Approach Breakover Departure Ground clearance Wheelbase
Macan 2019 base (the floor)16.9°~16.6° est.8.1 in110.5
XC90 2016 (hers)23.8°21.3°23.3°9.4 in std / 10.5 air max117.5
XC90 202621.0°20.9°23.1°8.1 to 8.5 in*117.5
Volvo EX9018.8°17.7°19.9°8.5 in / 9.8 air max117.5
Kia EV920.0°n/v (~16–17° est.)22.8°7.8 in (no air option)122.0
Hyundai Ioniq 920.1°n/v (~14–15° est.)22.9°6.9 in (no air option)123.2
Rivian R1S35.6°29.7°34.4°up to 14.9 in121.1

\* The 2025/26 XC90 clearance is quoted at curb weight + 1 person while the 2016 is at curb weight, so those two numbers aren't directly comparable; the angles are. Published breakover figures run 1 to 3 degrees better than the geometric estimate since the belly low point is rarely at the wheelbase midpoint; estimates adjusted accordingly.

Appendix B: resale research detail (2026-08-18)

Numbers below are labeled observed (actual listings or transactions) or forecast (residual models). Percentages from iSeeCars and CarEdge are measured against original MSRP; dollar losses are computed against realistic negotiated prices.

Per-vehicle summary

XC90 T8 2026 EX90 Rivian R1S
Realistic negotiated price~$82,000~$81,500~$87,000
5-yr retained (% of MSRP)42.5% (observed)~35% (segment proxy)32.3% (observed)
Value at year 5~$37,800~$30,000~$28,400
5-yr depreciation cost~$44,200~$51,500~$58,600
Value at year 8~$21,900~$18,900 (proxy)~$17,000
Value at year 10~$14,400~$12,000 (proxy)~$13,800
Data qualityReal 5-yr history18 months onlyReal 4-yr history

XC90 T8

  • Observed (iSeeCars, 2026): XC90 PHEV depreciation 41.2% at 3 years, 57.5% at 5, 71.2% at 7, 83.8% at 10. The non-plug-in XC90 is better at every mark (34.4 / 54.2 / 67.5 / 79.5), so the T8 badge costs about three points at year five. The T8 wins the three-way comparison because the EVs depreciate worse, not because plug-in hybrids hold value well (hybrids as a category lose 35.4% at five years; the T8 loses 57.5%).
  • Observed cross-check: a 2021 XC90 Recharge (~$68,500 blended MSRP) lists at $27,800–28,700 today, a 55% five-year loss. KBB (56–60%), iSeeCars (57.5%), and CarEdge (50.3%) all land in the same band.
  • Observed direction: used 2023 XC90s average $42,119 across 2,215 listings, up 3.5% year over year (CarGurus, Aug 2026). The used XC90 market is stable to firming while the EX90's is falling.
  • Forecast: no Volvo won a 2025 or 2026 ALG / J.D. Power residual award, so there's no third-party backing for a "Volvo holds its value" claim.

EX90

  • Observed: 738 used 2025 EX90s average $54,182 (range $41,894–95,140), down 18.2% year over year (CarGurus, Aug 2026). Against a ~$82k average original sticker that's ~66% retained at 15–18 months. KBB has the 2025 Twin Motor Plus down $31,490 (38%) in one year.
  • Used 2026 listings average $87,231, but that pool is mostly untitled dealer inventory, so it isn't a residual signal yet.
  • The lidar timeline: Volvo ended the Luminar supply agreement 2025-11-14; Luminar filed Chapter 11 on 2025-12-15; a 2026-06-12 owner notice confirmed the promised features will never arrive; US owners were offered ~$1,500 in optional benefits; a class action was filed 2026-07-31 in LA County. A feature set advertised, sold, and withdrawn from cars still under warranty is the kind of story that sits on a nameplate's used values for years. The generation, not just model year one, appears to carry the penalty.
  • No observed 3- or 5-year residual exists (oldest cars are 18 months old). CarEdge's forecast curve is internally inconsistent and was discarded; the 5-year figure above uses the luxury electric large SUV segment observed rate as a proxy.

R1S

  • Observed (iSeeCars): 67.7% depreciation at five years (32.3% retained), vs. 65.2% for luxury electric large SUVs and 41.5% for all vehicles. The R1T truck holds up much better (54.5%), a truck-segment effect.
  • Observed: a 2022 R1S First Edition ($91,800 MSRP) averages ~$52,730 in current listings, a 42.6% loss in four years. Named causes: Gen-1 quality issues, Rivian's own 2023–24 price cuts, Gen 2 making Gen 1 look dated, the credit expiration, and a 36% sales drop in 2025.
  • A forum trade-in comparison (indicative only) showed a 2023 Quad Large offered $67,850 vs. a 2025 Dual Large offered $69,500, a $1,650 gap. If Gen 2's fixes were being priced in, the gap should be wider.
  • Company financials (Q2 2026): revenue $1.658B up 27% YoY; automotive gross profit negative $36M, carried by software/services ($215M at 42%); net loss ~$835M; $5.3B cash plus $7.16B pro forma after a July raise; VW JV committed up to $5.8B through 2027; DOE loan renegotiated down to $4.5B with Georgia pushed to late 2028. AlphaSpread's credit model: 4.6% bankruptcy probability. The Fisker precedent shows the tail (Ocean Ones at under a third of MSRP in two years), but Rivian is far better capitalized, and the R1S's current used values already assume a lot of bad news.
  • Collision cost shows up in insurance rather than any published total-loss rate: the Feb 2026 $53,736 quote (~250 labor hours), an $11,000 bumper tap, a $42,000 rear-end bill. The certified repair network covers ~25% of US zip codes vs. Tesla's 40%, which drives the ~$3,400/yr insurance figure.

The EV segment backdrop

iSeeCars 2026 study (950,000 five-year-old vehicles, inflation-adjusted):

Segment 2025 study 2026 study
Trucksn/v34.2%
Hybrids40.7%35.4%
All vehicles45.6%41.8%
EVs58.8%57.2%

Every segment improved; EVs least. The EV-to-hybrid depreciation gap widened from 18.1 to 21.8 points. Used-EV price momentum (Cox, Recurrent) is positive, but that strength is concentrated in cars under $20k and helps whoever buys the car from us, not us; for a new purchase the cumulative-loss number is the relevant one.

The federal credits are all dead (new $7,500 and lease loophole ended 2025-09-30; home charger credit ended 2026-06-30), and 243,000–330,000 EV leases expire during 2026, triple 2025's volume. That lease-return wave lands on used EV values through 2027, exactly the window where a new EX90 or R1S takes its steepest losses.

Lease vs. buy detail

  • EX90 (CarsDirect, offers through 2026-08-31): 2026 Twin Plus at $849/mo, 36 months, $8,369 due at signing, 55% assumed residual, $7,500 lease allowance. Effective ~$1,081/mo, ~$38,900 total. Observed 2025 EX90s are already at 56–60% retained at 15–18 months, and wholesale runs 10–15% under retail, so for Volvo's 55% residual to hold at 36 months the car would need to stop depreciating. Volvo Car Financial is holding the residual above the market and eating the difference, which caps our downside at their expense.
  • R1S: CarsDirect flags both current leases as overpriced ($1,159/mo and $1,599/mo), no manufacturer lease cash. Rivian prices its leases near the real depreciation risk, so an R1S lease buys no protection.
  • XC90 T8: ordinary incentives ($2,000 purchase allowance or 2.99%/72 + $2k bonus; $3,750 lease allowance + $2,000 loyalty, which we qualify for). Best residual of the group, so no structural reason to lease it.

Battery worry, mostly discharged

  • Volvo: 8yr/100k battery warranty, guarantees 70% capacity, transfers with the VIN. Rivian: 8yr/150k battery (Dual Motor), 8yr/175k drivetrain, transferable.
  • Recurrent (1B+ miles): average EV retains ~97% of range at 3 years, ~95% at 5; battery replacement rate 0.3% for MY2022+. Geotab: 2.3%/yr average degradation, 81.6% retained at 8 years. For a home-charged car doing ~34 mi/day, degradation shouldn't meaningfully touch resale.

The all-in annual cost math (2026-08-23)

Inputs behind the per-year table in the main body. Mileage: 34 mi/day from the Mercury policy, 12,400 mi/yr.

Correction (2026-10-24): the utility is LADWP, not PG&E (meter photo, confirmed by Joe), so the main body now uses about $0.26/kWh. Recomputed energy: R1S ~$1,500, T8 ~$2,200, EX90 ~$1,400 a year. The PG&E inputs below are kept as the original record.

Energy prices. PG&E EV2-A off-peak (12 a.m. to 3 p.m.): $0.23/kWh, from PG&E's EV rate page, August 2026. California regular gas averaged $5.58/gal mid-August 2026; the T8 recommends premium, assumed at ~$5.95. Road trips assumed 10% of miles at DC fast-charging prices (~$0.50/kWh). Confirmed 2026-08-23: PG&E is the utility, no solar, and none planned near-term (wanted eventually). Still to check: which rate plan the house is on today, and switching to EV2-A with any EV purchase. Future solar cuts the EV energy lines roughly in half; every 5 cents/kWh moves an EV's annual cost by about $150 to $190.

Consumption. EX90 Twin: ~85 MPGe EPA combined, about 0.40 kWh/mi from the wall, ~$1,300/yr blended. R1S Dual Large: 78 MPGe, 0.43 kWh/mi, ~$1,400/yr. XC90 T8: 32 mi EPA electric range against a 34 mi/day average, modeled as 60% electric miles (at ~0.55 kWh/mi from the wall, 120V charging losses included) and 40% gas at 27 mpg, ~$2,000/yr; as a pure gas car it would run ~$2,700/yr.

Insurance. T8 ~$2,000/yr (carried from the 8/15 pass). EX90 ~$2,650/yr (Recharged and CarEdge national full-coverage estimates; no real quote yet). R1S ~$3,400/yr (carried from 8/15).

Maintenance + tires. T8: RepairPal ~$851/yr plus a tire set every ~40k, call $1,100/yr, partly offset by Volvo's 2yr/20k complimentary maintenance. EX90: light routine service plus heavier EV tire wear, ~$750/yr estimated (no fleet data exists yet). R1S: routine service is cheap ($300–500/yr per owner guides; KBB $623/yr with wear items) but tire wear is the known weak point, with owner reports ranging from 6k to 25k miles a set at ~$2,000 installed; modeled at ~$1,400/yr combined.

Depreciation is the 5-year table earlier in this appendix divided by five. Charger install: $1,500 midpoint spread over five years for the EVs.

Omitted as noise: registration differences (~$30/yr between the cheapest and priciest) and the VIP Platinum warranty purchase (same ~$4k on either Volvo path). Financing cost was originally omitted here as equal across cars; corrected 2026-09-01: the rates aren't equal (Volvo subsidizes at 2.99%/72, Rivian's Dual builds run ~7% market), a $13–14k interest gap over 72 months (~$2,200/yr) carried in the main body's Financing or leasing section.

The ten-year view. Extending depreciation to the year-10 values, energy and insurance at flat rates, and maintenance rising in the out-years: the two Volvos land within about $2k of each other all-in (~$120k each), because ten years of fuel savings pays back the EX90's early depreciation. The R1S lands ~$17k higher. This is rougher math than the five-year table (no one has ten-year data on any of these) but the direction is stable.

The trade math on the 2016

KBB through 2026-07-10: T8 trade-in $10,730–13,080, private party $13,420–16,270, low end likely at ~120k miles. Roughly 18–22% retained against the ~$73k original MSRP at ten years. The visible decay rate is ~17.4% of remaining value per year, so waiting costs roughly $2,000–2,500 a year. Set against a >$10k rear-motor failure that exceeds the entire trade value, that's the case for buying inside the next 12 months without defending any specific month. Ground truth when we're serious: run a Carvana/CarMax instant offer.

Appendix C: research on rejected candidates

Kia EV9 (rejected on brand, 2026-08-15). Pricing at rejection: Land AWD $70,545 sticker, transacting ~$59–62k on up to $10k factory cash; 0%/60 + $5k as the APR alternative; strong leases (Wind AWD $449/mo). Reliability: bottom-tier CR prediction (below the R1S); ICCU charging-module failures hit 2–10% of Hyundai/Kia EV owners vs. ≤1% for other EVs; 9 recalls including two loss-of-drive campaigns; repairs free under the 10yr/100k warranty (original owner) but dealer parts waits ran 8 days to 4 months. Depreciation ~42% in 2 years on a 2024 Land. Insurance ~$2,650/yr.

Hyundai Ioniq 9 (rejected on brand, 2026-08-15). Was already tripping the first-year rule and had the weakest driveway numbers (6.9 in clearance, though its 20.1° approach cleared the Macan floor). Width never verified.

Lexus TX 550h+ / Toyota Grand Highlander Hybrid (rejected on length, 2026-08-14). 203.1 and 201.4 in, both over the ~200.9 ceiling. Not researched further.

Audi (checked and rejected, 2026-08-15). Q7 is the last year of a 2017-era generation with no US PHEV/EV and a tight third row; Q9 is a first model year, gas-first, and ~204+ in. No 3-row Audi EV exists. Future watch: a ~2028 Q7 PHEV in year 2 of its generation would be a legitimate candidate, outside this project's timeline.

Rivian R1S, briefly. Ruled out on 2026-08-15 (CarPlay plus the 0.1 in of length slack), reinstated the same day: CarPlay is Joe's preference rather than Brandi's, and the length question deserves real data over spec-sheet math.

Appendix D: research log

2026-08-01. Project started. Requirements captured; buying posture and model-cycle rules set; initial candidate list named. KBB ballpark on the 2016 T8: trade ~$10.7–13.1k, private ~$13.4–16.3k.

2026-08-14. Factory dimensions pulled and normalized (found the spec-sheet trap: Volvo publishes mirrors-folded width, others body-only). Length cut the Lexus TX and Grand Highlander. First driveway pass wrongly disqualified the EX90 and promoted air suspension to a requirement; both conclusions withdrawn after the Macan-floor and bottom-transition corrections. Confirmed the 2016's air suspension behavior is normal; found the unused Off Road mode (+1.6 in below 25 mph).

2026-08-15. Charging: full EVs need a 240V install, $1–2k planning number, panel capacity the only unknown. Pricing pass: EV9 ~$59–62k, EX90 money on the lease side, XC90 T8 in run-out discounting, R1S near sticker. Reliability pass: no safe harbor anywhere (T8 = software annoyances, EX90 = 2025 charger failures with a clean-so-far 2026, EV9 = worst predicted reliability, R1S = last-place brand with the happiest owners). Corrected an earlier claim that the 2026 EX90 has working lidar; it has none. Warranty pass: VIP Platinum covers the named failure modes, buyable any time, cheaper online. CarPlay ruled the R1S out and got walked back the same day. Audi checked and rejected. Kia and Hyundai out on brand. Field closed: XC90 T8 vs. EX90, R1S conditional on the fit test. Doc restructured from append-order into case order.

2026-08-18. Resale and depreciation pass, run from Joe's voice capture asking how the three finalists hold value. The finding that changed something: the Volvos cost the same to buy but diverge $7–8k over five years on resale, so full-EV isn't free; over a ten-year hold all three converge and resale stops mattering. Second finding: Volvo's subsidized EX90 lease transfers the depreciation risk to Volvo; Rivian offers no equivalent.

2026-08-24. Two Brandi priorities added and researched the same day. Dog mode: only the R1S has a real one (Pet Comfort, 68 to 74 degrees, passerby message on the display, needs >50 mi of range). The EX90 has a timed parking-comfort function with no passerby message plus occupant detection as a safety backstop; the T8 has no parked-cooling equivalent because its AC leans on the engine, and the T8 finding comes from previous-generation owner reports so it needs confirming on the 2026 refresh. First item in the comparison where the R1S wins on one of Brandi's own priorities. Road-trip charging: framed on 10-to-80% rather than time-to-full. EX90 ~22 min at Volvo's best case on a 350 kW charger, 25 to 30 realistically; R1S Max pack ~38 min after the 2026.07 update. Highway range ~310 mi for the EX90 on 21s (~210 to 250 on the 22-inch Performance) and ~320 to 350 for the R1S Max. Net: no stop under ~200 miles, one stop around 400, and the two cars land close on total trip time. The durable difference is the plug, since the 2026 R1S has a native NACS port and uses Superchargers directly while the EX90 still runs CCS with an included adapter. Sources: Volvo Cars US and Volvo support documentation, Rivian's Pet Comfort release and owner forums, Consumer Reports and Edmunds range tests, Recharged and InsideEVs charging tests.

2026-09-01. Financing vs leasing pass at 12,400 mi/yr. Volvo subsidizes both money channels (2.99%/72 plus cash on both Volvos; EX90 lease cash plus an above-market residual) while Rivian subsidizes neither on a Dual build. So the T8 answer is finance, the R1S answer is finance-and-hold or pass, and the EX90 answer is decided by the ten-year question: the lease wins a 3-year hold by $10–15k, financing wins a ten-year hold, and the 55% residual (~$47k buyout against a projected $38–40k market value, plus California taxing the buyout a second time) means lease-then-keep is off the table. Corrected Appendix B's financing-equal-across-cars omission (~$2,200/yr against the R1S) and added the 12,500/15,000 lease mileage tier to the checklist. All quoted programs expired 8/31; September programs land the first week. Sources: CarsDirect (all three cars), Autoblog (Rivian's February 0% promo), Rivian forums (Costco Auto Program).

2026-09-04. Rivian's September offer checked against the doc: 1.99%/60 on the 2026 Tri Max only, ordered from R1 Shop inventory with delivery by 9/30, the same shape as August's. On the Dual Large we'd actually buy there is a $1,189/mo lease and no APR money. Tri Max starts $23k above the Dual Large, so the promo saves ~$15k of interest and gives back more than that in sticker before depreciation and insurance. Folded into the Financing section: the "APR promos recur" mitigation now says Tri-only two months running. Volvo's September programs not re-pulled yet. Sources: Rivian offer page, CarsDirect, CARFAX.

2026-08-23. Doc rewritten for readability ahead of sharing with Brandi: decision framing up front, plain-language car sections, research detail moved to appendices. No facts changed. Same day, added the all-in annual cost table (depreciation + insurance + energy + maintenance + charger), closing the gap that the doc had never priced fuel and electricity. Findings: the EX90's ~$700/yr fuel savings are canceled by ~$650/yr higher insurance, so the Volvo gap holds at ~$7k over five years; over a ten-year hold the Volvos converge to roughly even and the R1S stays ~$17k more. EX90 insurance firmed to ~$2,650/yr (national estimates). PG&E confirmed as the utility, no solar (wanted eventually, not near-term); remaining input is the house's current rate plan. Also added the Carvana selling process for the 2016 (probable disposal path per Joe): 7-day offers, at-home pickup, re-inspection risk on undisclosed condition, no CA trade-in tax credit so trading in buys nothing. Also added a future-models check: the ~2028 XC90 redesign is reportedly an extended-range EV (~100 mi electric plus a gas generator), tempting but a first-year 2030 buy in practice; no big EX90 changes rumored for 2027; 2027 R1S is modest (captain's chairs the one real addition). Nothing argues for waiting.

2026-10-23. Rusnak Volvo repair quote on the 2016, which got a steady check engine light on 10/21 at about 119,000 miles. A smoke test confirmed an intake air leak at the supercharger resonator, which sets the lean code (ECM-P017100). The quote came to $8,912 across nine items. The big ones were the resonator and reseal ($3,971), the timing and accessory belts ($2,270), and the front O2 sensor ($767), and the rest was filters, plugs, fluids, and alignment. Tires, brakes, motor mounts, and the underside checked out fine. Claude observation from the service video: the scan screen also showed stored codes the tech didn't discuss. They were a high-voltage battery isolation fault, an "active discharge" fault, and an air suspension compressor failure, and the video doesn't say whether they're active or old. Volvo Technical Journal TJ 31120 (April 2016, verified on NHTSA) covers this exact lean code on 2016 XC90 T8s, and the fix it describes is replacing a single gasket. That makes the $3,971 line worth questioning. Brandi's ChatGPT session reached the same recommendation (decline the repairs and get as-is offers) and gave an unsourced as-is trade-in range of $3k to $6k, against July's KBB range of $10.7k to $13.1k. Joe: "We were already pretty seriously considering getting rid of it and could do that immediately if needed." Next steps are for Brandi to put the open questions to Rusnak and to get instant offers that disclose the check engine light. Same day, October offers were pulled for all three cars, all expiring November 2. Rivian extended 1.99% for 60 months to every 2026 Dual build (in-stock inventory, delivery by November 30), which erases the R1S financing penalty added on 9/1. Volvo raised EX90 financing from 2.99% to 4.99%, roughly $5k more interest on a ten-year buy. The XC90 T8 was roughly unchanged: up to $5,500 of purchase allowance, financing at 2.49% or 2.99% (sources disagree), and the $669 Core lease. Volvo's own offers page blocked the check, so the Volvo figures come from CarsDirect, Carfax, and TrueCar. Sources: Rivian offer pages, CarsDirect, Carfax, TrueCar. Later that day, instant offers on the 2016, each run two ways: CarMax $7,600 in good condition with no repairs needed and $6,400 in fair condition with the check engine light; Carvana $6,900 ("pretty great," no issues) and $5,400 (check engine light, significant repairs needed). The disclosed offers land at about half of July's KBB trade range, closer to the ChatGPT session's $3k to $6k than to KBB. The warning light costs $1,200 at CarMax, which sets the break-even for any pre-sale repair. Same day, a friend's R1S fit in our garage (Joe: "it fit"; margin not recorded), which clears the R1S's last gate and makes the November 2 Rivian financing deadline a live decision.

2026-10-24. Doc and site reorganized at Joe's request so the site works on a phone: "there's a lot of information which is nice but it's just not really usable on our phone and in our discussions." Each car now has its own page on one template (why you'd pick it, the deal right now, cost, garage and charging, dog mode and road trips, reliability and resale, test-drive checklist), followed by Compare, Your car, Background, and Next steps. Car pages and Compare show only current deals; the August to October financing history moved to Appendix F, and the full Grok self-driving research to Appendix E. The site is now generated from this doc by build-site.py. No facts changed except two corrections made in passing: the R1S price in the side-by-side now uses the $88k to $92k optioned figure, and the budget check says all three land near the $85k we paid in 2016 (the R1S as optioned lands above it).

2026-10-24 (later). Three research passes added, all by Claude subagents. Volvo's finances: Q3 2026 revenue down 23%, an operating loss, 2,500 more job cuts, guidance withdrawn, credit at the top of junk with a negative outlook, about $5 billion of liquidity, Geely moving closer; checked against Volvo's own Q3 release. The same pass surfaced Volvo's September 15 announcement of a long-range XC90 T8 (about 73 miles electric, deliveries early 2027), verified against Volvo's release, which corrected the What's coming section and moved the T8 pick from finance to lease-or-wait. Owner research: Reddit blocked the Volvo pass, which used LeaseHackr and owner forums instead (almost no 2026 EX90 or 2026 T8 owner reports exist yet); the R1S pass read about 350 Reddit posts via RSS. Added a What owners say section to each car page, a Company health section to Compare, and a three-year lease-vs-buy comparison (Claude estimate) after Joe asked how to weigh the flexibility of not committing to a ten-year car. Also recorded: the R1S test drive is done and Joe says they can meet Rivian's November 2 deadline.

2026-10-24 (panel and utility). Joe's photos of the electrical panel show 200-amp service with large loads of AC (60A), a guest house subpanel (60A), and an oven (40A), with gas apparently running the furnace, dryer, and cooktop, so a 40-amp charging circuit should fit without a panel upgrade; the panel has no empty slots, so it needs slim breakers or consolidation (Claude's read; an electrician confirms). The meter is LADWP's, which Joe confirmed, correcting the doc's PG&E assumption from 8/23. Energy costs were recomputed at about $0.26/kWh (each car up $100 to $200 a year, ranking unchanged), and LADWP's Charge Up LA charger rebate (up to $1,000) was added.

2026-10-24 (keeping the 2016). Joe asked what would fail next if the 2016 were repaired and kept. Claude's read: the rear electric motor (ERAD) is the biggest risk ($6,000 to $10,000+ out of warranty; owners report first-generation units failing around 100,000 miles), followed by the high-voltage system (the isolation fault already on the scan) and the air suspension compressor (code already stored). Research surfaced that Volvo gives the T8 hybrid battery 10 years or 150,000 miles in California emission-warranty states, which for a January 2017 in-service date may run to January 2027; two questions were added to the Rusnak list to check coverage of the high-voltage fault and the ERAD.

2026-10-24 (Rusnak's in-stock cars). Rusnak's manager gave Joe a printout of three in-stock 2026s and called it out-the-door pricing: an XC90 T8 Ultra 7-seat at $84,795, an EX90 Twin Motor Plus 6-seat at $83,590, and an EX90 Twin Motor Performance Ultra 6-seat at $92,090. Claude observation: all three are window stickers (Monroney labels), each total equals list price plus the $1,395 destination charge to the dollar, and the T8 sticker's fine print excludes tax, license, and title fees, so the real out-the-door figure would be about $9,000 higher per car. Joe's read: "they gave me their 'msrp' and if I was serious about this I could go push them hard on this price." Claude's target prices before tax: T8 about $79,000 to $80,000 (TrueCar-based reporting of buyers about 7% under sticker; dealer listings $1,000 to $3,000 off), EX90 Twin Plus about $78,000 and Performance Ultra about $88,000 (Kelley Blue Book price-paid averages about $4,000 under sticker, plus the options on these cars, minus the $1,500 Twin Plus allowance). Sources disagree on T8 factory cash in October: TrueCar shows $6,000, the 10/23 pass found up to $5,500, and Volvo's offers page as seen in search shows only 4.99% financing on the T8 Plus; ask the dealer. The 2027s change little (EX90 carryover; 2027 XC90 T8 reportedly detuned to 401 hp), so a leftover 2026 is negotiating leverage rather than a compromise, with the long-range T8 still the T8's resale risk. Sources: Kelley Blue Book EX90 and XC90 T8 Ultra pages, TrueCar Volvo deals, Volvo US offers (via search), Autoblog 2027 XC90 and EX90, CarsDirect 2027 XC90.

Appendix E: Rivian self-driving research

Grok research, 2026-08-30. Not Joe's words.

The worry, answered: a leftover 2026 R1S and a 2027 R1S are the same autonomy generation. Rivian's August 2026 2027-model update added captain's chairs, trim names, a color, and a wheel. It did not add lidar or a new driving computer. Rivian's own 2027 FAQ: "The vehicle underneath is the R1 you know." (Your 2027 R1 questions answered, 2026-08-28)

The generation that actually got left behind is Gen 1 (about 2022 to 2024). Those cars have Driver+ only: highway assist with hands on the wheel, and Rivian has not given them Universal Hands-Free. We would not be buying those.

What a 2026 or 2027 R1S has (Gen 2)

Standard, called the Rivian Autonomy Platform: 11 cameras and 5 radars, no lidar. Rivian says the compute is about 10x Gen 1. Standard features (hands still on the wheel, full attention required): Highway Assist on select highways, Adaptive Cruise, lane keep, automatic emergency braking, and the rest of the usual safety suite. 2026 R1S is an IIHS Top Safety Pick+.

Optional Autonomy+: $49.99/month or $2,500 once (stays with the vehicle on resale). New deliveries include a 60-day trial.

  • Universal Hands-Free on 3.5 million miles of marked roads in the US and Canada. Hands off the wheel, eyes still on the road. Official footnote: it will not stop or slow for traffic lights or stop signs.
  • Lane Change on Command: flip the blinker, it finds a gap.
  • Co-steer: nudge around a pothole without cancelling hands-free.
  • On the product page as "Coming 2026": Auto Parking, and On-Ramp to Off-Ramp (follow the route through highway interchanges).

Sources: rivian.com/autonomy, What is the Rivian Autonomy Platform?

What Rivian says this same hardware will get by software

Rivian, on the R2 Autonomy+ roadmap page (and they name Gen 2 R1 in the same sentence): "Today, every Gen 2 R1 and R2 is capable of Universal Hands-Free and Lane Change on Command on roads with a painted line. For these vehicles, hands-free, eyes-on Point-to-Point driving is coming soon." Limited rollout later in 2026, widespread targeted 2027. You enter an address and supervise while it handles city streets, interchanges, and the rest. Still eyes-on. CEO RJ Scaringe has compared that step to Tesla's FSD (supervised).

Fine print that matters: Autonomy+ features last "during the lifetime of feature support for the hardware on the vehicle at delivery." Software can keep improving on Gen 2 until Rivian stops supporting that hardware. It is not a promise of every future autonomy feature.

Source: R2 Autonomy+ Roadmap

What this car will not get

Gen 3 is a different computer (in-house RAP1 chip) plus lidar. Rivian has said lidar starts on future R2s as a training fleet. A spokesperson told InsideEVs in December 2025 they do not plan to retrofit earlier vehicles once lidar ships. Eyes-off / Level 3 talk for 2027 and Level 4 / Uber robotaxi talk for 2028 is framed around R2, not as an R1 hardware upgrade.

There is no announced R1 "Gen 3 refresh" inside the 12-month buying window. Waiting a year for a lidar R1 would be guessing.

Sources: InsideEVs, 2025-12-17, Rivian Autonomy & AI Day, Introducing the 2027 R1

Vs the Volvos, for this one question

The EX90 already had the "we sold you a roof sensor for features that never came" story (Luminar). A 2026/2027 R1S is the opposite problem: Rivian is not promising lidar on this vehicle. You get highway hands-free now, and a supervised point-to-point path they say will land on Gen 2. You do not get the next computer. If eyes-off, no-one-watching driving is a must, this is the wrong car. If the goal is highway hands-free plus later point-to-point with eyes still on the road, a 2026 or 2027 R1S is the generation that has that hardware.

Still to confirm at order time

  • On the configurator: Autonomy+ bundled vs extra on the specific 2026 leftover vs 2027 build (both should be Gen 2).
  • Treat 2027 eyes-off dates as CEO roadmap, not a line item on the window sticker.

Addendum (same night, more sources)

One correction to the paragraph above. A Rivian press release on 2025-12-11 does put Gen 2 R1 on a trajectory that includes "point-to-point, eyes off and personal L4," not only R2. That is a company target, not a feature on the window sticker, and it still runs on camera-plus-radar hardware. The 2028 Uber robotaxi (first cities San Francisco and Miami, up to 10,000 R2s) is explicitly R2. Lidar and the RAP1 chip remain R2-first, end of 2026, no retrofit. Nasdaq/Business Wire PR · Uber/Rivian SEC exhibit, 2026-03-19

Also worth knowing:

  • Driver-facing camera in the rearview mirror watches for fatigue and distraction when hands-free is on. (Support: hardware)
  • NHTSA campaign 25V585 (filed 2025-09-08): some 2025 R1 Hands-Free Highway Assist builds could fail to identify a lead vehicle. Rivian fixed it over the air. They classified it as SAE Level 2. NHTSA 25V585
  • As of the California DMV's 2026-08-12 list, Rivian has no autonomous testing or deployment permit in California. The 2028 SF robotaxi still needs regulators. CA DMV permit holders
  • Gen 2 Support copy: 11 cameras, 5 radars, 12 ultrasonics, dual NVIDIA Orin, "over 250 trillion operations per second." The marketing page still says 10 HDR cameras and 200 TOPS. Unresolved discrepancy.
Appendix F: deal history, August to October

The financing analysis as it stood before the 2026-10-24 reorganization, kept for the record. The car pages carry only the current deals; this is how the answers got there.

August programs (quoted 2026-09-01): XC90 T8 2.99%/72 mo + $2k cash, Core lease $669/mo (~$837 effective); EX90 2.99%/72 mo + $1k cash, lease $849/mo with $8,369 at signing and $7,500 lease cash; R1S no subsidized financing on Dual builds (~6.5–7% market), lease $1,159/mo (~$1,327 effective).

XC90 T8: finance it. Volvo subsidizes the loan: 2.99% for 72 months (1.99% has appeared on Core trims) plus up to $2,000 cash. On about $80k net plus tax that's roughly $1,335 a month and about $8k of total interest over six years. The lease has turned genuinely cheap (CarsDirect rates the Core lease excellent), but a lease pays for the steepest three depreciation years and leaves us owning nothing, which fights the ten-year pattern. It only makes sense as a deliberate three-year "try the plug-in life" bridge.

EX90: the finance-or-lease choice is the ten-year question, and there is no middle path.

  • Lease three years and walk: roughly $42k all-in with tax. California taxes only the payments on a lease, which saves about $4k versus paying tax on the full purchase price.
  • Buy and sell at year three: about $81.5k negotiated plus $7.5k tax plus $6k of interest, minus a projected $38–40k resale, lands near $55k. On a short hold the lease wins by $10–15k.
  • Buy and hold ten years: 2.99% is cheap money, the depreciation gap to the T8 converges (see the ten-year section above), and the lease path would mean renting the worst three years and then buying a car anyway. October update: Volvo raised EX90 financing to 4.99%, which adds roughly $5k of interest on an $85k loan over 72 months and weakens this case.
  • The buyout escape hatch doesn't exist. The 55% residual puts the buyout near $47k against a projected $38–40k market value at year three, plus a second tax hit on the residual. Nobody would exercise it, so an EX90 lease is a three-year rental, full stop.

R1S: finance and hold, or pass. Rivian subsidizes neither channel on the build we'd get. The lease is priced at real depreciation (CarsDirect flags both current leases as overpriced), so it transfers no risk to Rivian, and Dual-motor financing runs at market rates: roughly $1,610 a month and $21–22k of interest on about $95k over 72 months. February's 0% APR promo is dead and August's 1.99% covered the Tri Max only. Two mitigations if it survives the garage test: Rivian joined the Costco Auto Program ($1,000 to $5,000 off, the one discount channel for a brand that barely discounts), and the APR promos recur, though so far only on the trim we wouldn't buy. September's offer (checked 9/4) is 1.99% for 60 months on the Tri Max only, ordered from Rivian's in-stock inventory with delivery by September 30, the same shape as August's. The Tri Max starts about $23k above the Dual Large, so the cheap money saves roughly $15k of interest and the sticker premium takes all of it back and more, before the higher depreciation and insurance on a $110k car. Two months running, Rivian has put APR money on the Tri and lease cash on the Dual, so plan on market-rate financing or Costco for the build we'd actually buy.

October update (checked 10/23): Rivian's cheap money now covers the build we'd buy. The 1.99% for 60 months extends to every 2026 Dual configuration, including the Dual Large. On roughly $95k financed that's about $5k of total interest, against the $21k to $22k this paragraph assumed at market rates, so the financing penalty in the correction below disappears for a car bought under this offer. The catches: the car comes from Rivian's in-stock inventory (the R1 Shop), the loan has to be approved by November 2, delivery has to happen by November 30, and the 1.99% rate is for "very well-qualified" buyers. It doesn't combine with other offers, which likely rules out stacking the Costco discount. The 2027 R1S gets 3.99% for 60 months. The lease is $1,209 a month with $7,604 due at signing, with a $1,500 lease bonus already counted in. The R1S passed the garage fit test on October 23, so this deal is available if we move by November 2.

One correction to the cost table's assumptions. The all-in table treated financing cost as equal across cars, and that assumption breaks here: Volvo's 2.99% against Rivian's roughly 7% is $13–14k of extra interest over 72 months, call it $2,200 a year, which widens the R1S gap versus the T8 from about $4,300 a year to about $6,500 for a financed purchase. Appendix B's omission note is corrected to match. October's 1.99% Rivian offer reverses this for a 2026 R1S financed before November 2: its money becomes the cheapest of the three, and the gap drops back to about $4,300 a year or slightly less.